What risk does Qantas face? Given that the terms of an EA remain in place until replaced or
terminated, I would say that the risk for Qantas is little to none either way. Who says Qantas will be successful? There is no guarantee they will be successful, but if you look to the situation the Virgin cabin crew found themselves in early last year, this is what the Commissioner's Recommendation stated:
In my view, if this vote is unsuccessful, realistically, limited options will remain. It should be understood, that against the Commission’s tests, if the Company is faced with a second failed vote was then to make an application to terminate the Agreement and return to the Award; the circumstances would then meet the Commission’s tests for termination of the Agreement. Importantly, the majority of terms in this, in principle Agreement, are significantly more favourable to employees, than many provisions in the Award.
Not sure if this link will work, but you can search Fair Work Commission Virgin Australia Airlines Pty Ltd T/A Virgin Australia (B2021/72) Commissioner Spencer
https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&r...YnBEYipn9c_dG-
It is worth noting that the Fair Work Act states that an Agreement MUST be terminated on application if it meets the test mentioned by the Commissioner.
In response, this is what the TWU recommended:
https://www.twu.com.au/companies/vir...increwyesvote/
What are the ramifications of termination? My view is it is a reminder of what is at risk. When negotiating you need to understand what the costs and risks are for both parties. If you try to press for outcome that is more cost and/or risk than the other party's alternatives, you have pretty much forced them to take the alternate course of action.
I think your other questions are variations of the same theme.
Don't think I like any of this. This is where we are with the current industrial relations laws and decisions made by the current Commissioners. I just want pilots to be fully aware of what is actually happening so that when it comes time to assessing the risks involved with EA negotiations they are dealing with facts versus being in an echo chamber only hearing what we want to hear.