As pilots, we all have a certain level of what you could call arrogance but is more a level of belief in our own abilities. The trouble is that the self-belief can suddenly cliff-edge and you go from confidently handling the situation to realising you have probably f***ed up in a very short space of time.
Reliance on 'Well I got in here last time and it was nearly this bad' is a very poor predictor of a safe outcome. Just because you have always got away with it doesn't in any way guarantee this time will be the same.
Don't push to your absolute limits, because it is too easy to exceed them - give your self a safety margin. We used to call it 'Adding a bit for the wife and kids'