With respect, your timeframe presumes that we discuss the immediate term. That is not the premise that I am highlighting. Any added capacity coming from FlyBe 2.0 in particular (if it transpires) must be considered over a period of many months at least. We are in a time of considerable uncertainty, with fears widely expressed that C-19 restrictions could be ramped up again over the coming Winter months. In this environment, air transport generally will remain depressed. Airlines will be justifiably reluctant to take on risk at a time like this. Interline isn't back in any meaningful way. Businesses remain wary of liability if employees fall sick in the course of a work-related trip. Winter is the low-season for leisure travel at the best of times, barring a short window either side of Christmas and New Year. Airlines across all sectors had placed speculative capacity on sale for the season ahead in the hope that Covid restrictions would be a thing of the past. They aren't. And the mood music from Whitehall suggests that barriers to travel will remain in place until Easter 2022 at the earliest. But the implications of that do not define the long-term market potential of specific inter-regional routes once the pandemic is deemed to have passed. The whole industry is in survival mode in the immediate term, not just the regional carriers.
The question raised was whether the market for inter-regional air travel can absorb a new entrant carrier such as FlyBe 2.0. My contention is that the opportunity is there, because those core routes once flown by legacy FlyBe have been adopted on a token basis only at this point. Carriers have staked their claim, so to speak. Frequency increases proposed by carriers such as Loganair, Eastern and Blue Islands have not been sustained because we're still in the thick of 'Covidworld' in the short term, not because the public will never want to fly again. First, we must restore confidence in air travel generally - that is likely to be a tough ask during this Winter at least. Eastern and Blue Islands et al are absolutely right to sidestep the risk of committing to expansion of fleet and crew until this uncertain phase passes.
Looking at our examples of SOU-MAN and EXT-MAN again, a chicken-and-egg situation afflicted the Summer months. The sustained re-emergence of inter-regional business travel requires a day return capability which hasn't yet been restored. So demand remains depressed by default, even during the most optimistic weeks of Summer. And connecting opportunities have been annihilated, with overseas flights thwarted by travel bans, time-consuming document inspections and endless uncertainty. Though fares offered have been high on the few services which have been operating between SOU/EXT - MAN. When discussing ANY route proposition, we must consider the environment whilst C-19 continues to dominate everything quite seperately from "normal" latent demand post-covid. And yes, the transition period between the two will be gradual requiring weeks and months, the rebound will not be instantaneous.
But the collapse of legacy FlyBe took some 70+ aircraft out of the market. Stobart followed with a further 18 or so. Eastern and Blue Islands are tiny by comparison. They can only scrape the surface of this opportunity unless they are prepared to multiply in size in the face of the worst short-term market conditions the industry has ever seen. Nobody could recommend such a course. Meanwhile, a new entrant such as FlyBe 2.0 (or whoever) enjoys the advantage of choosing the opportune moment to enter the fray, and the rate at which they add capacity. Caution makes sense for all until C-19 travel restrictions are firmly in the rear view mirror. But don't presume that inter-regional routes which sustained healthy demand pre-covid have been killed off forever. Airlines must plan for life after Covid. The "gap in the market" which airlines may perceive is strictly a prize for after the lifting of government restrictions beyond fear of sudden reimposition.