Originally Posted by
langleybaston
Every major conflict has demonstrated that no nation has ever had the "right" mix of military capabilities' when defending themselves from offensive action. if they had the right capabilities they would have deterred the aggressor. I strongly believe there was no Soviet offensive in Europe during the cold war because of the huge US led NATO forces along the border.
This statement is based on a totally logical aggressor, but conflicts are rarely begun for totally logical reasons.
The statement is clearly not true for the Falklands War. Great Britain won. Great Britain had the right capabilities [would not have had a year later] The aggressor, Argentina, was not deterred.
Perhaps not "major", but big enough, and in any case I do not believe scale is significant..
Clausewitz, Machiavelli and Wellington briefed me on these matters.
Actually i would suggest that the Falklands war in some ways, makes my case. The UK had not signaled their determination to defend the Falklands and certainly had not established deterrent forces in the Falklands, in fact the opposite occurred. Argentina clearly did not expect the UK to make the herculean effort needed to prosecute a war at such a distant location. I would suggest that if you substitute the name of any of the countries adjacent to Russia for "Falkland Islands" a similar dynamic is developing. Ambivalent signaling as to the response to Russian aggression invites that aggression as it did in the case of the Falklands. Things get even more fraught as an Island is either occupied or not. Russian creeping boundary delimitation, arguably the case in Crimea, presents a significant challenge to the EU and NATO.
I think it is also important to note that Argentina used the Falkland invasion as a foreign adventure to distract the populace from government failures at home. Given the challenges Putin is facing, a similar distraction could be very appealing.
The comparison with the Falkland Islands is obviously imperfect in many ways but, I would suggest that as the old aphorism goes, those who do not learn form history are doomed to repeat it.....