The above scenario is perfectly plausible and similar to one which I put forward earlier on a different thread, except I thought HKG would get divided amongst the big 3 from the mainland with the city as a virtual hub to keep costs down. Staff and aircraft maintenance at lower mainland rates, all the profits go to China and it’s a big stamp of authority on the city.
With CX having just raised US$650 million there is the possibility that the airline will survive which I also posted on another thread.
Investors won’t put up money like this to watch it go up in smoke, there has to be a survival plan on the table. Reducing cash burn would be top priority followed by restructuring into something which can make money post COVID.
Expect to see a downsizing of staff, fleet and network. More money would follow if there was light at the end of the tunnel and returns would be assured but at the moment this investment is speculative.
The EK style premium long haul hub model is out for the foreseeable future. Last September SQ had layoffs and decided on a different fleet mix going forward, with the B737, B787 and A350 being the primary types. Most B777s were grounded, there are orders for new ones but arriving in 2025/6, and 1/3 of the A380 fleet being retired.
CX and SQ are reasonably similar, so following Singapore’s example would be likely.