Lots of traffice about on this subject - this one should see an interesting response:
Airservices have said:
“Airservices are conducting extensive risk modelling that will include analysis of flights numbers in the impacted sectors, aircraft identified on surveillance without flight plans, aerodrome congestion, sector demand and conflict and collision risk modelling.”
An industry member has responded:
Could you assist my comprehension as to how you were able to determine flight numbers “in the impacted sectors”given the impacted sectors of the East Coast Class E proposal are down to 1500’ AGL and include large areas of Class G without surveillance, and even those areas of Class G with surveillance include large numbers of aircraft without ADS-B or transponders which would only show (around capital cities) on TAR not enroute MSSR even if radar coverage available. Radio wise, both in Class G and Class E those aircraft may well run silent so that identification likewise lacks.
I’m also having difficulty following on from that in how one performs “collision risk modelling”without knowing the data on the abovementioned aircraft not known at all in the system (no flight plan, no radar or ADS-B identification, potentially no radio calls thus running silent for our purposes).
Your answer will be valued since the risk modelling you cite is a foundation “part of our safety case”.
As McLimit said:
'How the F are we going to back out of this steaming turd of a concept and look like we haven't F'ed this up'