The dauber wasp theory is unlikely as the aircraft was on a 1:30hr turnround prior to the accident flight.
A downdraft of the magnitude required to get the vertical speeds recorded from the FR24 data is most unlikely as how would they dissipate before the surface. The fishermen nearby didn’t report hurricane force winds.
EIFFS mentions fishermen hearing ‘explosions’ that he purports may have been a sonic boom. After COPA 201 had a loss of control due to VG failure at FL250, it exceeded the speed of sound before breaking up at FL100. With the Vertical speed assumed from the FR24 data and the ground speed also recorded from the same source at the later stages of the dive, it can’t have been far off.