While it's certainly true that recruitment for European, USA or whatever regional short-haul will start first, I see it as a case of mass exodus of long-haul pilots towards short-haul for the sake of returning to flying. In a situation where jobs are few and far between, a firm A320 job right now is way, way better than the possibility of an A350 job in another 1-2 years (spent doing what?). Hence, the true shortage of pilots with relevant experience will only start when long-haul picks up.