There is no doubt in my mind the UK CAA will oversight and grant ATO approvals both in the UK and overseas for training towards the UK licence just as they have always done, the big question is, when will they be able to do it? When will they have the manpower, expertise or the budget to get back to pre EASA days? By the same token, EASA Member States and EASA directly, will approve ATO's in the UK and elsewhere. Today, however, with the sharp downturn in demand, I suspect ALL will be less keen on the overseas approvals to try and help protect the home flight training industry. Thank goodness there are already a few ATO's established for the sake of the industry. Congrats to all ATO's who have planned ahead and have everything set to keep both their UK and EASA approvals after January 1st , they have done a smart thing for themselves and students alike and will preserve greater choice.
In the long run, I am also quite certain, there will be mutual recognition between UK & EASA. It just won't work otherwise. It was like this before EASA, pilots were able to migrate across Europe and elsewhere and get recognition for their licence with little fuss in most cases, although this was only when the airline could not fulfill their pilot demand from its own citizens....but come on, that is exactly the same with EASA....mutual licence yet, but a Brit would find it hard to get the job with Air France, just as an example, if there were an abundance of French nationals seeking the vacancy, not to mention the language requirements, fluency required! I concede Ryanair had the most to gain from an EASA licence with their many 'domiciles' in many countries, nevertheless, I don't believe for one minute that if demand was like it was before COVID, all UK trained and UK license holders would suddenly be ignored by Ryanair recruiters, they like everyone, were desperate for pilots.
The bigger problem is COVID, the downturn will lead to greater protectionism by all countries to preserve their ATO's, this equates to less choice for students and higher prices, the opposite of what is needed. Brexit is just the icing on the cake for the worst year ever in Aviation, so I for one will stay optimistic, it will all get worked out after the vaccine is proven and maybe all the government employees working from home will start to do their job!
SJ