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Old 19th Oct 2020, 16:58
  #19 (permalink)  
Wirbelsturm
 
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Just a note of caution. In a 'normal' downturn airlines might park up a hull or two but often they will just alter rotations and utilise aircraft less thus reducing the need for flight crew as the seasonal flying will be reduced albeit often with increased downtime. At this point headcount reductions are made as the new fleet plans require less flight crew. When the industry 'picks up' those hulls are already there and their utilisation increases increasing the need for flight crew.

This mess is fundamentally different. 'Some' people want to fly but the vast majority are confused by the mess of differing requirements, rules, tests and quarantines that it makes flying simply not worth the effort. Airlines have reduced and scrapped aircraft. An A380 is crewed at around 8-10 crews per airframe, the jumbo was similar. Those aircraft are gone. Not parked, gone. Airframe utilisation is right down at bottom and still companies are laying off flight crew.

This is not a normal downturn. This will take concerted, coordinated effort from all countries of the world to produce a standardised, safe and accurate system of ensuring safe flights from COVID. Personally I don't think we will see a return to 2019 levels for at least 5-6 years. LH pilots will migrate back to SH to keep current and then will trickle back to LH as the routes open up.

By all means go for flight training if that is what your heart is set on but be well aware that the time scales may be long and you might need to budget for keeping your shiny CPL valid while all of the 1000+ experienced, qualified and type rated pilots are sucked up ahead of you.

(Lederhosen, some got the 767 as it was a 'dying' fleet which dropped LH to do SH and no-one wanted it. SH became so onerous that you could get a command within a year or two. Lifestyle has become the currency of choice for fleet decisions at BA!)
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