Spid. It isn’t pessimism, it’s reality. It’s what’s happening now. Pilots with tens of thousands of hours are being made redundant. The giant “heat sink” airlines of the Middle East are laying off thousands and thousands of pilots, all of whom are returning home and preparing to take anything (and there really isn’t anything) on offer. Experienced pilots (whatever that level of experience) are facing radical changes in their near and intermediate term futures. Pilots who are holding on to their jobs are in many cases doing so with fingers and everything else crossed! Covid-19 has been a disaster of unprecedented proportions for this industry. When recovery comes, and I feel that is going to be a long and relatively slow process, airlines will be in a complete “buyers market!” They will be able to pick up experienced crew for a fraction of the cost they did previously. I really cannot see where the impetus is for an airline to operate a cadet programme in that market.
When eventually the time comes that cadet programmes do start up again, I would imagine the requirements will be little changed from where they were last year. There will still be enormous risks and a great deal of competition.
Keeping a licence current isn’t about buying type ratings. Airlines may have expected you to carry the financial risk for that as a new cadet, but they aren’t particularly interested that you have been out and bought one. They are usually in the business of providing training to that end. The fact you may have bought one is likely to have been a “red flag” to many companies!
For experienced pilots, a period of redundancy brings with it a decay of skills, a fall in confidence, and an increase in anxiety. Those things often become more pronounced as time goes on. Six months is a long time to be in this position, and for many pilots 12 months becomes critical as ratings and medicals expire. Recruiting companies usually specify recency requirements of no longer than 12 months.
For a new pilot, the critical expiries are going to be your instrument rating (which may be incorporated into a licence proficiency check) and your medical. In the grand scheme of things these are probably a couple of thousand pounds to renew. The real problem is that the lack of currency experience is going to an exponentially even bigger problem than it is for experienced pilots.
This crisis has created an unenviable situation for everybody, but for new trainee and cadet pilots the risks have materialised in spades.