Two things we’re all gonna have to agree on.
a) The cards have been dealt. ie layoffs, involuntary and voluntary redundancies and retirements, wage cuts, terminations, no pay leave etc etc have now all happened.
b) The deck has now been shuffled. ie pilots from all strata of experience, all levels of performance, all nationalities of the world and working in all airlines in the world and based in most countries the world over have been effected and are now in this pool of ‘available’ pilots.
That said, one thing is for sure. Be it a month from now of a year from now but aviation HAS TO OPEN UP to the traveling public who has grown so used to crossing borders as if they were simply neighborhoods.
Once airlines open up to the travel demand, their recruiters are quite surely going to look to this shuffled up deck of pilots from the world over to pick the best of the lot. Or at least to pick the most of the best. Be it simply to have bums on seats. That said, in order to sustain the level of recruitment then, it is very likely that those very recruiters would offer above market salaries and conditions so as to attract the available lot and then have a picking out of that lot. The ones left behind ( relatively less experienced or qualified ) may well find themselves facing t n c ‘s which might well be below current market values.
I predict that when all this opens up, at least initially, the t n c’s offered by the initial recruiter may well match or even exceed that of pre covid levels initially. And that would only be for one reason and one reason alone. To attract the best available on the hold, in the shortest possible time frame. NO ONE would want their planes on ground again be it for the reverse reasons this time ie shortage of a pilot. No one ! And they will be willing to pay a premium for that fact alone.
Needless to say, the vaccine will be the game changer …
Last edited by Lucifer786; 1st Sep 2020 at 19:12.