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Old 5th Jul 2020, 13:12
  #351 (permalink)  
homonculus
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: london
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Interesting perspective when you look at the total death rate per 1000 historically - even with the current level of pandemic deaths we are still only back at the level of what was the 'norm'
The death rate should currently be far lower than normal because we are still effectively doing little elective surgery (a disgrace in itself, but for another thread). We last stopped elective surgery in the UK in the 1970s when consultants went on strike and the death rate plummeted because although operations help more people than they harm, some are harmed.

Then add in the people we didnt screen since March, or who didnt present with initial symptoms od cancer / heart disease / stroke - their mortality will be greater but this will not be seen for some time. Overall excess deaths will continue to accumulate for many years. All we can currently say is that the level of infection and the belated locking down of the elderly currently leads to few daily deaths compared with pre covid, but the infection is still there and a rebound is possible. It could get out of control quickly if we misjudge it.

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