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Old 27th Nov 2003, 16:32
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Few Cloudy

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Sums - and the Future

As a bit of a backward boy when it comes to statistical mathematics - am I being very slow when I say I don't see that extending the career chances for everybody will disadvantage young pilots?

It seems to me, that they too would have the chance to fly on after sixty, so that the deal is fair for all:

Taking an average pilot career of Age 25yrs to Age 58yrs for argument's sake - that's 32yrs of flying - so expect 16 in the RHS and the rest in the left.

Taking a career from Age 25yrs to Age 65yrs also for argument's sake - you have a career of 40 yrs, so expect 20 in the LHS and 20 in the RHS.

So the only (on the face of it) unfair thing about extending Captains beyond 60 would be that at the moment of introduction the present FOs who see an upgrading round the corner would have to wait longer than they anticipate. In the course of time, however, this evens itself out, when they themselves are able to extend.

Now this all supposes a zero growth in air travel. When I joined a big carrier a century or so back, the Captains flying with me had flown only six or five years as copilots, because this airline was expanding fast at that time. I then waited fifteen years for a command, because the thing slowed down again. Later it sped up again - luck of the draw!

The example above also supposes that all pilots will want to take advantage of the extension possibilities. That is very unlikely as many pilots wish to retire at an earlier age, so the whole "problem" is likely to have even less of an impact than the vitriolic would have us believe.

Often it is just being forbidden from doing or being allowed to do something which affects the frustration level. I bet if the flexibility were there to extend, all would be happy but few would use it.
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