The UK was first infected by air travel. Track and trace, which was in force at the time, didn’t work and only delayed the inevitable and that was despite so few cases.
We now have the prospect of European holiday hot spots opening up where holidaymakers will soon forget social distancing particularly at night so will bring new infections back to the UK for a second wave.
There is a big difference helping track and trace this time though. Back then, there was no social distancing of any description, so the R0 was approximately 3. The idea now, is to keep the R0 below 1, and part of that is the 14 day ‘quarantine’. After such a lengthy period of strict lockdown, and a dramatic reduction in daily deaths which makes the public feel its all over, I think the government has a cat’s chance in hell of actually keeping the R0 below 1 for and significant duration.
Before March, the initial response to the pandemic was minimal outside of China. The politicians of the world failed to make serious attempts to prepare for what was pretty much inevitable. The reaction since has been purely political. With no other available tool to prevent deaths spiralling out of control, as soon as community spread reached a certain level, failure to impose strict lockdowns whilst others did so, would have been political suicide.
As we ease out of lockdown; giving the impression they have a plan in place which will work,
as long as the public comply, the politicians are giving themselves a get out clause. When the second wave comes, it will be due to the poor compliance of the public. Without the quarantine, the media (and therefore the public) would blame air travel for the second wave, which would come back to blaming the political decisions. It is all just politics.