Cool guys,
I concur with your thoughts.
I think this is just the inevitable final stages of a declining power. It was always going to be inevitable that the US declined from their world power status, and I think that we are seeing an acceleration of that via Trump and their ineptitude on the pandemic response. Maybe they could’ve kept their powerful status for a few decades more but the election of the orange one put an end to that.
So my question would be:
How is it possible for the United States to prevent China from overtaking it or at least stop China from being the dominant Asian power?
IMO - they can’t do it militarily, China’s military is too large for a quick conflict, a long conflict would be unpalatable with the American public and the threat of nuclear weapons use too great.
They can’t do it economically. China (and the rest of Asia) can defeat the US on a trade war as we’ve seen over the last few years. They’ll never outperform non first world manufacturing.
They can’t do it by dominating trade routes. China’s Belt and Road Infrastructure has to be one of the greatest strategic moves in history which will see China dominate trade routes for 85% of the world population.
They can’t appeal to things like moral righteousness. Things like the Iraq War and their inability to deal with their gun problem have put rest to any moral authority they could have claimed.
They can’t do it via sanctions and restrictions. China and even Europe now are ignoring US sanctions on Iran.
Soon they won’t be able to do it monetarily. Use of the US dollar as the reserve currency is declining, the swift payment system will soon have a competitor.
So in a geopolitical sense I can’t see how the US can stop its inevitable decline. Maybe the only thing going for them is the ability to influence popular culture. But Hollywood can only inject a limited amount of pro-American-ness into their movies before it becomes ridiculous. And even they want the Chinese market, so I can’t see China being portrayed as the baddies in the next Hollywood blockbuster anytime soon.
I really think the US is out of options. And seeing how the nation is creeping further and further in massive internal divisions they can’t even provide a united front at home.