Originally Posted by
racedo
No sure what gave you that idea.
Father was a paid for Kenyan student, which was still part of British Empire, on a Russian language course in Hawaii, remember Kenya wasn't yet indepenent but in 1960 he wanted to learn Russian and in Hawaii. Guess London was too cold.
His mum was a student when most people could not afford to go to Uni, moved from there to Seattle also at Uni and then back to Hawaii also at Uni. His step dad was a paid for post Grad student as well, who then returned to a clear well paid role in Indonesia as they lived in a wealthy suburb.
The idea that poverty was he grew up poor similar to black people around the US in 1960's is not borne out by his own version history as how many poor black families were moving from University to University and visiting Indonesia / Kenya.
That still doesn't make the fact that the US elected a black man to be president historically significant.
With respect to China, it would appear to me that the country can be thought of like a transoceanic flight where the plane is past PNR but a sudden huge unforcasted increase in headwind makes it doubtful they can make land. Just because they are flying fine now does not mean they are OK
A bit of an oversimplification, but I believe fundamentally accurate summary of the Chinese model. Chinese citizens accept one party rule with no political dissension allowed in return for a steady and significant increase in opportunity and wealth for almost everyone in the country. So far the government has delivered, but to do that requires a real GDP annual growth of at lest 6 %. This is an extremely high bar and will be impossible to achieve this year and likely for at least the next 2 years. The inevitable result will be a huge increase in unemployment and a significant reduction in individual wealth for many.
The Chinese government has only one tool to manage unhappy people, the ruthless use of coercive force.
Will that work with a population that increasing is well educated and media savvy ?
Traditionally dictatorships that are in trouble embark on foreign military actions to distract from domestic troubles. There are many ways for that to end very badly, not just for the Chinese people but for the entire world.....