The dilemma for CX is that if they massively reduce their pilot numbers, they have NO option of rapid expansion in the future.
A laid off pilot in USEUROAUSNZ etc will get a barista/truck driver job in situ and will jump at the opportunity to return to the pilot ranks as it is an easy transition.
The expat (although on local terms) pilot in CX has to relocate back to home country, set up a new life for family etc, and then become barista/driver.
When/if CX want them back it is not a simple transition back to HK. If they keep the bases open, that might make it easier, but then there is the flood of whoever remained in HK onto the bases before new hires. Catch 44!!
There is no incentive for an expat pilot to stay in HK if they are let go, thereby there is no pilot base in HK to rapidly re-hire. Yes there will be many out of work pilots in the world chomping at the bit to work for CX for minimal wage, but the recruiting/screening/visa/intl move/licensing/training issue Will create significant lag and the opportunity may indeed be lost again....
Lots of negativity in this thread, what ever happened to “sitting on your hands”?