I’m a glass half full kind of person but this gloomy forecast is one for the dust bin. Do not underestimate the pent up demand that is brewing in 100’s of millions of travellers as we wait this out. I haven’t talked to one person who has been put off flying by this and will get on a plane as soon as reasonable.
The outlook that suggests people will revert to online work at home forever is seriously unschooled in the nature of humans. The moment workers can kick their zoom meetings to the curb they will. Not suggesting the market wont shrink and take a few years to recover but 50% is too pessimistic and unrealistic to even consider seriously. Sitting around forecasting the demise of this industry is completely unproductive.