What am I basing my numbers on? Nothing, just spit balling.
You really see a post 2008 style bull run after this one? Great, if so, we should all be buying a few airline stock, particularly Cathay and Swire shares. And I honestly hope you're right, that there will be a huge, rapid recovery.
But having been around about 5 decades, and been in the business since the early 90s... come on, this is nothing like the relatively quick impact, closure, and recovery that we had a with the Asian crisis, 9/11, sars, gfc, etc. This is a whole other animal. In multitudes.
Just taking one thing in isolation - (no pun intended), people working from home, getting used to it, and companies realising the benefits, will have a massive impact on business air travel.
And then there's the fear of flying/travelling, and cruise holidays for the wary. And then the fact that we are ALL going to be broke for the next few years. What holiday? Screw that, save your money mate, for a rainy day. Like we should have all been doing, but none of us did. (present company included).