Originally Posted by
nolimitholdem
Question their motives all you want, but EK is so far keeping their workforce which is more than most major carriers around the world are doing.
You KNOW I'm no EK-defender. But perhaps a little more gratitude for ones circumstances is in order. The petty biting of the hand that is still feeding them is a bit incredible.
I believe there will be a few factors at play for Middle East expats in the medium to long term.
1. The resumption of flights will be slow. Most likely there will be limits set by various governments to the number of daily flights they will allow.
2. The load factors will likely be very small for quite some time. Remember, people will just have come out of a couple months ( maybe many months ) isolation and fear of this virus. I expect many people will be asking the inevitable question "do I really need to, or can afford to sit in a 500 seat petrie dish only inches away from others" ? Yes, there will be those who travel out of necessity but I suspect tourism, hospitality and non-essential travel will be dramatically impacted for up to a couple of years.
3. Survival of the fittest. Nothing comes cheap or free on the UAE. This is the time for the two UAE carriers to merge operations, especially at a time where leases and other obligations can be broken under the banner of "global pandemic". Streamlining UAE passenger traffic will be the only way to remain profitable. You can rest assured that many airlines will be doing the same. This means is that many expats will be forced home anyway because the locals aren't going anywhere.
4. The future of the A380 is tough call. With cheap fuel and its attractiveness to passengers, it may be able to keep a place in the fleet to some degree. This at least is positive.
5. Sadly, the UAE in my opinion is on borrowed time. EXPO, which was supposed to help dig the UAE of of the sand will be a flop. Oil will remain cheap for quite some time to come and property values are heading toward the basement or already there. The next few weeks will be interesting as we might just start seeing long term unpaid leaves being offered or some sort of package for the over 57 crowd but as it stands right now, one couldn't leave the UAE even if you wanted to. In any case, life won't be the same after things start again. I believe that movements will be restricted until such time as a vaccine is found.
Time will tell.