Originally Posted by
ManUtd1999
True, but this isn't a "normal" financial crisis. A lot of those 10-20% haven't necessarily lost their jobs permanently but have instead been temporarily layed off. It's possible that the economy will rebound a lot quicker compared to previous examples. In an optimistic scenario we get on top of coronavirus over the next few months and life slowly returns to normal. This summer is clearly a write-off for most airlines but I don't think it's inconceivable that by next summer traffic is back close to February 2020 levels. Certainly the 3+ year depression people on these forums seem to be assuming is by no means guaranteed.
That is a very optimistic scenario,IMHO. This thing isn't going away. Until there is a vaccine travel will remain restricted by States and individuals to one degree or another. That could easily be 18 months away. I'd say a 20% contraction of the industry would be optimistic, returning to Feb 2020 levels a fantasy.