Who knows... "There is speculation a bailout could involve the Government becoming a part-owner, but Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has not ruled that in or out... "The government has made it very clear we support a sustainable, viable aviation sector... we believe having two airlines in Australia is a good thing" (Treasurer Josh Frydenburg).
"TWU national secretary Michael Kaine said the Federal Government should take a stake in domestic airlines and impose strict conditions on executive pay. It is just a short few years since the Qantas CEO was walking the corridors of Parliament House in Canberra, cap in hand, looking for a bailout following the disastrous decisions he made, including engaging in a price war with Virgin," Mr Kaine said. He now says Qantas doesn't need a bailout but spits the dummy when Virgin seeks one".
Joyce was about to leave Qantas after their 100th birthday at their highest share price ever (like most CEOs like to do). However, COVID-19 has ruined those plans. The only way to get the share price close to what it was recently is for VA to fold and therefore Qantas to recover more quickly than under the circumstances should VA stay. He'll either have to stay and get Qantas out of this mess, preferably to him with VA gone, or leave on a low.
Both VA (if they stay) and QF will recover as smaller airlines than before, for the short-medium term. With 40% of Qantas's revenue coming from international, this could take longer. Air NZ has already announced they will recover as a smaller airline, focusing away from long-haul and more on short-haul travel.
"Mr Foran said it was possible Air New Zealand would emerge from the crisis as a “much smaller airline”, saying it could be years before the carrier returned to its current size. Air New Zealand of pre-COVID-19 employed 12,500 people around the world. Clearly, we will be smaller for some time and we will need fewer staff. We expect that even in a year’s time we will be at least 30 per cent smaller than we are today, he said. Therefore we are planning to be a domestic airline with limited international services to keep supply lines open for the foreseeable future.”
I feel VA and QF will receive something. What ever that is remains to be seen!