Originally Posted by
lucille
There’s only one variable which will effect the speed of recovery of this industry: Widespread immunity from this virus. Either acquired via having recovered from an infection or by application of a vaccine.
Agreed, that's the main variable. But we'll also be influenced by firmer infection fatality rate figures
if they turn out to be significantly lower than current estimates. We will likely also be influenced by improved prevention and treatment strategies, and for sure the threat level felt by a 20 year old is already vastly different to that felt by a 70 year old.
Remember, economies like South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan have not shut down completely to tame this virus - there may be ways it can be either greatly suppressed or potentially lived with, even in closer-contact situations like an airplane.
As for acquired immunity? Presently it’s the best kept secret - no where is there even educated speculation on whether it exists or not. And the vaccine? I’m reading it’s two years away.
On the contrary, there is indeed educated speculation, mainly based on the experience with other coronaviruses, with SARS, and on monkey studies. Acquired immunity is not likely to be short-lived. That is, it should last months or years rather than weeks or months. Furthermore, the rate of mutation of coronaviruses in general make them less of a vaccination-defeater than the flu. No guarantees of course, but this is probably the least-bad part of what we know about this thing so far.
While the global population remains susceptible to being infected there will be lockdowns, border controls etc none of which is good for the airline business.
International air travel will resume when we have five-minute serological tests we can take at the border - these are probably 10-20 weeks away, not years. Travellers may also carry cards showing they were tested and shown to be immune at home, but I dare say most countries will want independent checks before boarding and perhaps again on arrival.
Nothing I've said above is intended to understate the seriousness of what we're facing and how bad it might get in the short term, especially for the most vulnerable and for health workers. We certainly need the current lockdowns to, at the very least, buy time to come up with smarter measures.
But the human race can be
very adaptable when under pressure.
(Speaking as an SLF who cancelled a five-week trip in early March and who is very keen to resume travelling at the right time).