I agree, a well reasoned argument, however with one missing viewpoint. When this dies down, be it mid-summer, or late autumn, many billions of people around the world will have been in isolation for months. The majority of those will probably still have jobs to go back to (due to various unprecedented stimulus packages from governments), will have been getting paid while sitting at home (the UK's 80% salary Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme being an example), and not have spent a penny on anything other than food and utilities. They'll be desperate to fly - whether to get some sun, or to visit family they haven't seen for months.
Add to that the fact that every major event has been postponed from the first half of 2020, but still planned to go ahead, the economic rebound will be huge. The Olympics, Formula 1, football, rugby, music events, business conferences, all taking place over the course of the following year.
Naturally it goes without saying that this is all conjecture - it could go either way, this is just the optimistic view of one pilot currently sitting on their couch.
Respectfully disagree. A pandemic is not something You turn off using a switch unfortunately. Leisure travel will be almost non existent till there will be a vaccine on the market or a highly effective cure. Once all the different countries will be through their worst moment in terms of new cases, they will slooowly start to resume daily life activities with highly stringent measures but opening up boundaries for leisures travellers will be the last priority to avoid a new increment in active cases. IMHO, according to what is available to be read on the web, every country will have to sort it out first before any further "mix" can occur, and this will take a long time. I believe that if we are
really lucky we will see some leisure travel in the summer of 2021. I would love to be proven wrong, and I hope it happens.