Originally Posted by
Clandestino
I do not find the scenario where fleet, seat or seniority is relevant probable.
Methinks the most probable scenario is unprecedented scale recruitment in Europe, including planeloads of DECs, later this year or early next at the latest.
I don't always agree with Clandestino, but in this case I think there is certainly a possible scenario, where there is a massive shuffling of the cards and existing or quite probably new airlines hire a lot of qualified people including some currently working in Turkey, China, the Middle East etc. Some older pilots in previously gold plated jobs when faced with new perhaps less attractive conditions will choose to retire. The overall market may take a while to return to current levels, but generally after a big downturn like the oil crisis, the gulf war, twin towers, 2008 financial crisis etc. things recovered quicker than was expected at the time. Of course the pandemic is different and we don't know for sure what the consequences will be like medium term. If it mutates, immunity does not develop and it carries on over several years like the flu of 1918 then we could get to the situation described by the thread starter. But if that is the case then we probably all have more to worry about than not having a job. I remain so far more optimistic.