I've read this thread from the start, lots of creative accounting and mathematical projections here. If only the World health organisation, CDC and other agencies had the expertise that is rampant here... oh that's right they do. The 'hysteria' here is a perfect reflection of what is the problem. It's not the virus causing the problem, its peoples reaction to the reporting of it.
I'm reading on the professional pilots rumour network a million and one opinions, from people that have absolutely no connection to the industry aside from they have sat in a seat (and that would be better hosted in jetblast)... and actually I'm tired of it. So I'm going to tell it like it is, as an actual airline pilot, and bring it back to topic.
The industry is on its arse and 12 months by now will have changed beyond all recognition. The 'virus' that is spreading and affecting the industry is not a new form of germ. It is the global infection of mass hysteria that has affected the economy and peoples behaviour to the point where 'society' and the normal rules of behaviour, decency and in fact common sense have broken down. This has affected air travel in combination with a great deal of other public services and amenities. The cause for that is the global availability and consumption of media, be that social, news or literary. In the last week I've watched my world fall apart, literally.... whilst I and everyone I know is actually quite healthy. I've lost my job, and there isn't another (globally) to realistically apply to, that hasn't been touched with the brush of 'covid-19'. Not the infection itself mind.... but the effect (mentioned above) that has damaged consumer confidence... to give an example, my local pub has sent an email describing the ramifications (prior to our friend boris's industry destroying speech) detailing their corona plan, when in fact theres never more than 5 people in there at the best of times...
The 'crisis' I've seen, isn't people being 'sick' around me in the sense of corona, it's actually a mild breakdown of society. Panic buying, mass hysteria and a media that is basking in days/weeks/months of easy work whilst the headlines write themselves, with a little massaging of course.
I'm watching as airlines draw themselves in, not to preserve customer, or their staff's health (regardless of touchy feely emails), but to make sure they are still around to take full advantage of the inevitable recovery and give the maximum benefit and profit to their shareholders. The world is broken, aviation is but a part of it as an industry most susceptible, not to corona, but to public perception.
In closing I will add, I'm not worried about the lack of toilet paper on the shelves. The daily mail seems to have no problem making extra prints to satisfy the public appetite, and nails for the bathroom are still readily available. I'll just have to make sure the print doesn't stick, or I'll end up with more sh!t than I started with.
Goodnight all and for those of you actually in the industry, I genuinely wish you nothing but the best.