Originally Posted by
cats_five
And we have a moderately effective vaccination against the flu which in the UK is free to over 65s, pregnant women, carers, and people with a list of chronic condition, asthma being just one example. Unfortunately uptake isn't always what it could be. People who don't get a free jab can get one cheaply at a pharmacy.
The 4% figure is bunkum, think 40%->60% . . . 4% is a non event, many sources now predicting (FWIW) up to 70% population infection rates without extremely draconian isolation measures which will go on for many months and which probably cannot be tolerated by the liberal west . . . not so much of a problem in China for example.
Secondly the point about Influenza immunity through vaccination is very relevant, many of those who influenza does not kill would not survive without vaccination, that same demographic are under the most risk now.
Lots of people will die in this event, and if no vaccine is developed, lots of people will die when it comes around again, which it almost certainly will . . . see Spanish Flu for a reference model for how these things tend to work . . .