There is a lot we dont know about the virus, but some basics about epidemiology and what is happening around the world allow us to be reasonably confident
1 that we should have totally isolated China when they locked down - we didnt and the early cases either came straight from China or via China
2 that we should have locked down our countries (I mean the UK and US) about 2 weeks ago - close borders and self isolate everyone except essential workers
3 that we are both undertesting - we need to test 100s of thousands so we can track and eliminate
If we had done so we could have kept deaths at under 100 in the UK and equivalent in the US. As it is we will see many more. The message must go out to self isolate. Everyone except essential workers. No exceptions as to who or how. No contact. Period. Once each patient can only infect less than one other person we win. We can then unlock, rebuild and get the economy and aviation moving again. Anything less and it will drag on much longer with more lives lost