Originally Posted by
dr dre
With these travel restrictions and a lack of community transmission I doubt we'd be at Italy's position in three weeks. Three weeks ago they had 20 cases and it's now 21,000. But we had about 20 cases 3 weeks ago too, and now we only have 250. Warmer weather, more controllable borders, and a very good testing and monitoring regime implemented by our health services (hats off to those heroes). I think it may be more due to Italian incompetence and an elderly population. Again, South Korea has a similar population and greater initial numbers but has gotten the outbreak under control much quicker. Singapore too.
Sorry to burst your bubble Dr, our testing and monitoring has been limited by reagent shortages (USA as well). We are observing positive test results rate limited by available resources. At least one State (WA) tests for only imported cases, not community spread.
There is no evidence that warmer weather alters the rate of transmission. Qatar had a large number of cases.
State health ministers
have reported shortages of reagents and kits used to conduct coronavirus tests in laboratories, as unprecedented demand for testing combines with limits on exports from other nations struggling to contain Covid-19.
Speaking at the
council of Australian governments meeting on Friday, Australia’s chief medical officer, professor Brendan Murphy, said supply problems with coronavirus testing kits was a “temporary issue” but one that was hampering the scale of testing in Australia and across the globe.
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The West Australian health minister, Roger Cook, said a global shortage of personal protective equipment for health workers and reagents for Covid-19 tests had health department procurement staff scrambling around the clock to secure them. “That’s something of acute concern to us,” he said. There is currently a 72-hour testing backlog in the state.
The state’s deputy chief health officer, Robyn Lawrence, said new measures were being adopted to ensure only the highest-risk patients would be tested.
Those wanting testing would need to bring evidence of overseas travel within the past 14 days, such as boarding passes, she said.
The Guardian Global shortage of Covid-19 test kits hits Australia as other nations limit exports Fri 13 Mar 2020 17.48 AEDT