Originally Posted by
ruprecht
A RIN? Announced by Friday?
That’s quite the rumour. Lots of leave to exhaust yet.
Reductions in Numbers processes take time for re-training, re-allocation of resources. A RIN would be more likely to be used if you know those people won't be needed again (767 RIN).
The virus impact will rebound. It may take 6 months, 12 months but unlikely to continue beyond this southern winter, or at worst next northern winter.
There's no reason retraining substantial amounts of crew and then in 12 months retraining them back to their original positions.
What will almost certainly happen. Forced allocation of leave, VR packages offered, maybe a mutual dropping of divisors to absorb excess crew. But due to the likelihood of a "V" shaped rebound once this panic is over (basically people who had stopped flying all want to fly again suddenly) you had better have resources ready to go when the rebound occurs.
Fully making a large number well trained pilots redundant only to re-employ them in a year or so is ridiculous. What I could see is a situation similar to the "furloughs" that happened in the US in the 2000's. A situation of LWOP is enforced on those junior in each rank (with union approval of course). Or pilots are asked (or have enforced) LWOP periods amongst all crew for 1/2/3 months spread amongst crew in order to ensure all crew are relatively current for when the demand for flying resumes. The one thing is with a global lack of flying demand the company probably couldn't find a LWOP arrangement with any other carriers.
A bit of short term pain spread evenly may be the best way to manage this situation. But again, it'll be over this year or next at most. The A350 isn't due here until 2023. The board makes long term decisions when looking at aircraft purchases. It really is a separate discussion to management of excess crew due to a temporary coronavirus lack of flying.