What happens after a No vote.
Let’s say the vote goes down 45% Yes to 55% No. Qantas has a decision to make. The deadline is utterly irrelevant as they have now stated the aircraft will be ordered regardless so April 1 is no barrier to continued negotiations.
Qantas can:
a) Pull the A350 off the table.
This invites almost certain PIA. All the cost savings they are chasing in S/O pay, training freezes and multi-variant flying evaporate. Court cases as to the legality of this external entity (and others) will drag on for years and there is a slim chance AIPA could win which carries great risk. Costs associated with this option can mount for 3 years before any savings are realised from the external entity.
b) They can continue negotiating knowing they only need to sway 6% of the pilot body with an improved offer to get it through with all of the benefits and none of the risks above. They can trim just one of the unpalatable elements of the offer and roll on with industrial harmony and a much easier entry into service. The business case can clearly sustain it as they acknowledge it could handle a change to the crew complement. A new vote could be knocked over in 3 weeks. The company starts saving money on training and new hires immediately.
Now some will say that it must be a) because that’s what Tino said would happen. But Tino and Alan also said that their “1st, 2nd and 3rd preference was to deal with the pilots.” So you either believe one statement or the other but they can’t both be true.
I’ll go with option b) because that makes business sense. AIPA have not taken industrial action and are not chasing greater than 3% so there is no negative precedent set for other Group EA’s. It is the least risk and most economically sound option.