I’m wondering about 10 years down the track when both the A380 and A330 are likely to be gone. If this deal is voted up, then presumably more A350s/B787s are eventually brought in as replacements. No more A380 hourly rate or legacy overtime, which is a win for the company, and the pilots have to consider whether the resulting T&Cs are still acceptable.
Or, the deal is voted down, and the 350 flying is outsourced (personally I have no doubt that they’d do it, regardless of the cost and potential inefficiency, simply because of the egos in play). To replace the 330/380, the company could get more 787s, which would be a win for the pilots for 330-style flying but not the 380 stuff. Or it could get 350s for mainline, in which case the pilots would maybe have a better chance of retaining something like the current conditions than they would for a radically new proposal like Sunrise. (As a bonus, you get the 350 without the 23-hour sectors). Or maybe a combination of 350/787. But: the other option would be for them not to bother replacing the 330 and 380 in mainline. Most of that flying, and any additional 350s necessary, would end up with their new entity, and mainline would wither to a small boutique 787 outfit. Call this scaremongering if you like, but you can’t tell me it wouldn’t be attractive to Alan & co, nor that their lawyers wouldn’t laugh off any transmission of business case.
I don’t have any answers as to how this will likely play out, nor am I advocating a vote either way. I do reckon it’s worth thinking about, though.