My 2c is that we need to sit back, take some of the emotion out of it, and think about what the credible bargaining positions are on both sides. I think that it is clear that the A350-1000 is coming, no matter what - Qantas have changed their tune from 'sign up, or no planes' to 'sign up, or we hire someone else'. The threat to scrap Sunrise seems like it's off the table, so I'm not worried about that.
The threat to employ pilots for Sunrise through a different entity seems credible. Qantas has form, and there're a stack of pilots about to come onto the market. On the Fairwork point, I expect they'd argue that this is new flying, not outsourcing existing work. And, now that they've made the threat and attached it to a clear trigger (not getting the EA up), they'd lose a lot of credibility with pilots, AIPA, financiers etc if they piked. What's the downside for Qantas, if it follows through?
- It loses (even more) faith with pilots, and the various consequences that follow (increased sick leave, fuel burn, work-to-rule etc)? Qantas has been there before, and doesn't seem too concerned about that - the fact that they've gone nuclear in both the Sunrise and the JQi negotiations makes that reasonably clear, at least for me.
- Perhaps Qantas would be more concerned if it started to cop heat publicly, to the point that it hurts ticket sales or loyalty. That seems possible to me - there's been a few stories recently about Qantas strongarming QFi, JQi, Perth Airport and Rex, so a perception might set it. But, we're not exactly a publicly-sympathetic group, when base salary on offer for an SO is about twice the average annual income. So, maybe Qantas thinks it could tough it out, if it came to that.
- And would QF lose the benefit of dual-crewing on the A330/A350? I suppose they would, but I'd wonder if that's pretty marginal to the business case.
To my mind, this one all turns on whether Qantas' threat is credible. If it is, then we're in all-or-nothing poker when it comes to the vote. I think they're using bully tactics and trashing any goodwill. But, I also think they're not bluffing and hold better cards.