Originally Posted by
stagger
...this is still not a LINEAR function.
I never claimed that it was. What is your point? My exact words were:
Conclusion: the rate of increase is no longer exponential but is moving towards a null rate of increase...
Conclusion: the rate of increase in number of cases is going down
Just so we're clear... a contagious disease exhibits exponential growth only in the absence of any quarantine of vaccination efforts. As soon as humans start to mitigate the propagation of the disease, it is no longer exponential. We can still use exponential functions to help describe it (lines on a graph), but the theory says that the increase in the number of cases is described by more complicated formula.
You can see that on the graph. An
assumption of exponential increase (say, the red 50% or yellow 25% line) clearly fails to match the data beyond approx 28 Jan (50% line), or approx 2 Feb (25% line) for mainland China cases. For ROW (rest of the world) the inflection points are earlier. In other words, the
actual data fails to fit an exponential model.
As I said, this is good news.
Originally Posted by
stagger
So for 25% daily growth you've got...
We no longer have 25% growth. Based on the actual data the daily rate of increase has been less than 25% since
29 Jan 2 Feb (mainland China data) or
27 Jan 1 Feb (rest of the world),
approx a week a few days ago.