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Old 3rd Feb 2020, 23:51
  #150 (permalink)  
Ollie Onion
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 1,433
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Surely the most likely scenario is that the mortality rate is actually much lower than currently projected. I would think that the stats on those that have died would be fairly accurate due to the majority of those people being in hospital care at the time of death. I am skeptical about the infection numbers though as there is a lot of evidence emerging that people who are suspected of having the virus but with mild to no symptoms are just being isolated at home and won't count in the official infection numbers as they are not being tested. Many scientists are saying the actual infection numbers are likely to be 70,000 plus. So far outside of China we have 151 cases confirmed and 1 death which equates to a mortality rate of less than 0.5-1%, if you use the projected numbers in China of 70,000 infections with 380 deaths it gives a mortality of 0.54%. Obviously we need more time to see trends and true numbers but I am thinking the use of the phrase 'killer virus' is a little hysterical and is helping to create this worldwide panic and rise in racism. Read the NY Times excellent article on the the timeline of this virus and it would appear that it was know about in very early December having infected many people prior to that and it took a good while for the Chinese to front up with the information only after numerous health workers were arrested for posting about the emerging threat. Also in the article there are many case studies of the victims in Germany who self cared at home for two or three days thinking they had a cold or flu and only once recovered found out their work mate had been tested and confirmed to have corona virus which led them to be tested to find that had been infected as well. I am starting to think the WHO are spot on with their advice to NOT have border or trade restrictions and that we have followed the USA in a slightly panicked response driven more by xenophobia than actual scientific evidence. Also they are now saying that it is not transmitted when asymptomatic but in fact those people just had such mild symptoms that they didn't even consider themselves to be ill i.e. a bit of a sore throat but otherwise fine. The shame of the whole thing is that in future China may be much less forthcoming with any information about new virus' after the reaction to this one.
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