Rubbish. It is mathematically impossible to establish an exponential function from only two data points. You have only described a linear function.
Correct up to a point. But this thing has been going on for weeks. If 25% of cases developed in last 34 hours, that's exponential enough for me under the circumstances.
And I do mean extreme. I live in Shanghai. No cars, taxis, or busses. No stores, banks or government buildings open. Only a few grocery stores with a handful of patrons. Nothing in the streets. It's eerie in a city of 28 million. Can you imagine this in Sydney, or London, or Tokyo? This has been going on for more than a week now, and given the median incubation period is about that, it should show up as a decline in the rate of increase of cases (note: a decline in the rate, not a decline in overall numbers).
No I can't imagine this in many places outside China.
Yesterday Wuhan announced that anyone showing symptoms of infection will be sent to dedicated isolation zone. To me, this confirms they can no longer test in Wuhan. If you look sick, you have the disease.
However banks and shops closed is why I have spent the weekend preparing.
It has been going on for much more than a week. It started back in December. The rapid increase in numbers and the rapid growth in containment measures the last 1-2 weeks is what is concerning.
The median incubation period is perhaps a week. But some cases definitely longer. And it is pretty clear that (unlike some other infectious), you are infectious before you are aware you are infected.
There's a world of expertise out there.
Indeed. Try this.
Lancet
This is the paper that estimated there were already 75,000 cases in Wuhan (as of last Tuesday). The authorities almost certainly do not have the ability to measure what is happening in Wuhan anymore.
This was the paper that led to the government over the weekend stopping people from China entering Aust (except citizens and
PR). Note the reference to Sydney and Melbourne on page 5.
It calculated that epidemics are growing exponentially in multiple Chinese cities
It also concluded that large cities outside China with close transport links to China are at risk unless substantial measures are implemented immediately.
If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks.
It is these very experts using the word exponential.
Given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan, other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks. Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicentres, unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately.
Look around Australia today and think whether we have implemented substantial public health interventions. Does stopping some direct flights next week constitute substantial and immediate?
Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally.
Again, these calculations were done last week and published on 31 January.
We estimated that 75815 individuals (95% CrI 37304–130330) individuals had been infected in Greater Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020.