Wuhan city and Hubei province are likely dysfunctional, with a severe shortage of test kits and with a health system so overwhelmed that it no longer has the ability to diagnose and process new cases. Although Hubei reports 9,074 confirmed cases, total cases have been estimated to be 75,000.
Hence there is no point reviewing the data from Hubei. No one likely knows what is happening there anymore.
Likewise, there is little point looking at the total data as the vast majority of cases are still in Hubei (i.e. the total data is compromised by the uncertainty regarding Hubei).
Instead, it makes sense to look at the data from other mainland provinces. The epidemic is sufficiently established that there will be person-to-person spread, but the provinces should still have the ability to collect accurate data. We all accept Eclan's point that the data is subject to political interference. However we only have the data we have.
Anyway I looked at 7 different provinces, and looked at the number of cases reported at 0002 UTC 1st Feb, and compared it to the number of cases reported at 1021 UTC 2nd Feb (i.e. 34 hours later). On average over these 7 provinces, cases increased by 136% (from 2014 to 2731).
Put another way, 1/4 of cases now were not cases 34 hours ago.
Given this outbreak has been going on for several weeks, this dramatic increase over 34 hours can surely only be described as exponential.
