Flights from China

[MickG0105]

Originally Posted by slats11

Continued exponential growth

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro

14,550 confirmed cases
19,554 suspected (they have a shortage of test kits)
304 dead
2,112 serious infections

Okey doke, slats, so the data that you are looking at there does not evidence exponential growth, certainly not over the last week at least. The growth MAY have shown some evidence of exponentiality at the outset but it appears to be resolving to simple linear growth for both infections and deaths, particularly over the last week.

Look at the two graphs; notice how the plot is resolving from an initial upward curve to a much straighter line? That's not what you see with exponental growth.

What you are looking from say the 25th onwards is in fact a declining linear change in the infections from initially around daily growth of 40 per cent down to 22 per cent over the last two days. You're seeing something similar with the number of deaths and the fatality rate; since the 25th the fatality rate has fallen from 2.8-ish per cent down to a smidge over 2 per cent.

Now, there's always a potential issue looking at data samples for time periods that are shorter than the incubation period, so let's just wait and see.

Bottom line though, that's not exponential growth (or if it is it is so weakly exponential as to approximate linear).
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