Originally Posted by
slats11
I have been following this guy for the last week. His model has predicted the outcome very accurately so far.
His model is going to continue diverging from actual cases, more and more so each day.
For R0 = β * c * D, where
β = transmission probability
c = number of contacts
D = average time spent infectious
he is using constants.
And we know that the real world doesn't work that way. As soon as health authorities understand what they're dealing with and start implementing appropriate infection control practices, β declines. Same same with c; simple population awareness, public infection control practices, movement restrictions and quarantines drive the number of contacts down. As a result R (actual) declines over time.