Originally Posted by
slats11
The basic reproduction number (R0) is the reproduction number when there is no immunity from past exposures or vaccination, nor any deliberate intervention in disease transmission.
Yeah, thanks, you're telling me nothing about R0 I don't already know.
Originally Posted by
slats11
The latest paper suggests this virus has a R0 of at least 4.
You do understand that R0 is essentially population/demographic/behaviour specific, right? That's why we're seeing a range of R0s. R0 will inevitably be higher in the nascent population, that's why the estimate for Wuhan is at the high end of the range.
As I said in a separate post, R0 says nothing about speed of spread. And R0 says nothing about the means of contagion or the vector.
In other words, as I said right from the set to, R0 is not necessarily a good indicator of pandemicity. R0 is
not destiny, it is not the same as R (actual transmission rate). It is a measure of a disease’s
potential.
Originally Posted by
slats11
That is a disaster with no immunity, and a vaccine perhaps 12 months away.
No, it is not a disaster because immunity and vaccines are not the only method of containing or curtailing the spread of a disease.
We know that 2019-nCov appears to spread the same way as SARS, that is, close person-to-person contact by respiratory droplet spread. And we know that basic
infection control practices, such as hand washing, are very effective in containing that sort of spread. It is worth noting that SARS wasn't contained through the deployment of a vaccine (the SARS vaccine was never deployed), SARS was contained through the deployment of basic infection control practices.
Originally Posted by
slats11
During the SARS outbreak (another coronavirus), initial data suggested a mortality less than 4%. This was revised to 6-7%. Then revised to 12-14%. People remember that it ended at 12%, but forget early data suggested < 4%.
I don't which people remember SARS having a mortality rate of 12%?! There were
8,098 recorded cases resulting in 774 deaths for a mortality rate of 9.55%, or at least that's the way I remember it.
And while we're remembering things, remember that it took about five months for the WHO to declare SARS a global health threat. It's taken them one month this time around. China has reacted faster and more effectively. The global containment and counter-effort has been deployed faster and more effectively.
Originally Posted by
slats11
With MERS (a much smaller coronavirus outbreak), the mortality was 35%. But the current coronavirus outbreak is already orders of magnitude larger than MERS.
...
already orders of magnitude larger ...?!!
Do you understand what an 'order of magnitude' is?
The number of 2019-nCoV cases (~12,000) is currently not yet one (singular) order of magnitude larger than the number of MERS cares (~2,000).