Originally Posted by
Bee Rexit
I am dubious that this is a video of two missile strikes on the Ukrainian Aircraft.
That video is absolutely consistent with the engagement of a SAM battery with a civil aircraft.
It was highly probable that at least 2 missiles were fired, that would be the appropriate training for an engagement against a defending tactical target, however the spread time is around 30 seconds, which is longer than would usually be applied.
The first missile burn time is just on 12 seconds, and detonates in the air 6 seconds later, within the max range of the 9M331 missile. About 10 seconds after the detonation the second missile is fired, and that detonates while still under rocket thrust, within the burn time of the same type of missile. That is consistent with the earlier images of the second missile strike against the aircraft.
The intervals between launch and detonation are consistent with a reducing engagement range, the aircraft has closed the launcher such as to reduce the flight time of the missile by ~5.5 seconds over about 32 seconds of launch interval, which gives a higher rate of closure than I expected to see, The launches appear to be from the same area, but could have been from multiple TOR systems, but that is unlikely, tactically the units can be deployed in clusters, but the systems would have had a more deterrent effect if deployed as single independent launcher systems.
Concur with SAM XXV that the launches were manually selected, and not an automatic launch.
The timing interval indicates a manual second launch, deliberate but sadly against a misidentified target.
The early images of the wreckage showed damage consistent with shrapnel, but in areas that were not consistent with a single strike, and with directional witness markings that looked inconsistent with a constant aspect of missile to aircraft. The timing of the first strike is consistent with the loss of ADSB data out.
The video shows the aircraft after the strike, around 45 seconds after the second detonation, and it is tracking well away from the launch site at that time, It goes out of view around 90 seconds after the first detonation. With what appears to be a steep descent, the aircraft is probably less than 45 seconds to its impact at that point, and that indicates a very high speed in the dive, and an abrupt turn towards the NE after the strikes.
Finally, the first missile launch shows what appears to be the ejection charge and then the missile motor ignition, which is consistent with the canister launch process of the TOR system. It may also just be a fluke of image timing, or obscuration by buildings etc, as the second launch shows a similar flash but a shorter period to the SRM ignition. would need frame by frame analysis, but it is redundant, the images are highly likely to be authentic, and show what is expected to have occurred.
An awful sight