Originally Posted by
CaptainProp
Recession? Really? I don’t see that happening any time soon. What do you base that on?
CP
There is a lot of uncertainty in the world. Trade wars, Trump vs Iran and Brexit to name just three. Anyone of these going badly can easily be the catalyst for a recession. Germany had two quarters of negative growth and it's supposed to be one of the motors of the European economy. A hard brexit will harm Germany's and other EU countries' economies and will harm the UK's even more. Furthermore the ECB interest rate is already zero so no way for the ECB to lower the rate to counter a recession.
Things in the US look a bit better for the time being but it's a globalised economy and the US is not immune to the above. Also, not many saw the last recession coming either. I'm no expert and obviously can't predict the future, just like the experts can't either, but I think it's more likely than not that within the next 18 months or so the economy will turn sour at least in Europe .