Ryanair downsizing

[Twiglet1]

Originally Posted by Pilotenguy

From another group :

Ryanair maths debunked as FUD


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MOL video: "41% loss in two years"

Aside from the fact that any competent accounting dept. can doctor the profit/loss figures in either direction, this figure of 41% is mathematically incorrect because you cannot add up percentages in this way. e.g.: 100 minus 20% is 80, 80 minus 21% is 63.2. Compare 100 and 63.2 is 36.8% less, not 41% less.

Just sayin'
It's all FUD


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MOL video: "only 30 MAX's by summer 2020, instead of 58 as planned"

Under the "2014 Boeing Contract" Ryanair expects 20 MAX's by 31/3/2020. Another 52 by 31/3/2021. So 30 MAXs by "summer" 2020 seems to be exactly as planned.

The net increase in a/c in the Ryanair Group (including increase in A320 and planned returns/disposals) is 28 by 31/3/2020 and another 30 by 31/3/2021. So, the figure of 58 is the total net group fleet increase by 2021, not MAX deliveries by 2020.

In the same sentence, MOL mentions surplus of 600 crew, which at 2019 crewing ratio is 17 a/c. The actual number of MAXs expected to be delivered by summer 2020 is therefore 13?

Or is it all just FUD?


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further maths on "delay of MAX aircraft deliveries"

In his video, MOL mentions a shortfall of 28 a/c (from 58 down to 30) affecting 600 crew.
In today's letter to BALPA, Ryanair mentions a shortfall of "at least 30" a/c affecting 900 crew.

According to the 2019 annual report, Ryanair's crewing ratio is 35.8 per a/c. Pilots per a/c is 11.6.

28 a/c = 1001 crew of which 324 pilots
30 a/c = 1073 crew of which 347 pilots
600 crew = 17 a/c and 194 pilots
900 crew = 25 a/c and 291 pilots

ie, none of Ryanair's numbers are correct. It's all just FUD.


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DH letter to Strutton: "500 surplus pilots"

on 31/3/19 (FY/2019 report) we had 11.6 pilots per a/c
2018 we had 11.2 pilots per a/c
2017 we had 10.1 pilots per a/c

The 2017 ratio was too low hence rostering crisis and increased ratio in 2018. Ratio increased further in 2019.

Assuming the 2018 ratio is the "correct" one for RYR and the 2019 ratio was too high, this would mean we have 167 surplus pilots. Not 500.

However: Ryanair plans to have 499 aircraft on 31/3/2020.
at 2019 ratio we will need 5770 pilots by then
at 2018 ratio we will need 5593 pilots by then
Therefore, we need to INCREASE our pilot workforce by 324 (or 147 at 2018 ratio) if we want to meet the 499 a/c target

500 surplus pilots? It's FUD.


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Winter Grounding:

2017-18: 60 a/c = 15% of fleet
2018-19: 65 a/c = 15% of fleet
2019-20: if it's to be 15% again, should be 71 a/c

When they come out with a statement: "Ryanair will have to ground 71 a/c next winter due ... (Brexit/MAX/???)", we know one thing: it's merely FUD, because that is what they would have done anyway.

I've never worked for an Airline that had the correct establishment. It suggests that no-one is leaving FR either. Its just a way of reducing the crews over the winter. - simples