An effective pilot needs training, understanding, knowledge, skill and experience. Some of these factors (if above average) can make up for deficiencies in the others but mostly I would say skill and experience are the most important and those are the ones a new pilot cannot get from reading a book or listening to a briefing or watching videos on Utube. We are losing, through attrition, the ones that do have the right stuff and replacing them with those who have only a superficial understanding of what the job requires. I don't have to be Nostradamus to predict the results.