US FTA WON'T GIVE SAME BENEFITS AS A FULL MULTILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT
The US is rushing the innocents in Canberra into this FTA because they,(the US), do not want to sign up for the full blown multilateral trade agreement which has been the long term aim of all nations in the World Trade Organisation.
The US operates on the 'united they stand - divided they fall' principle of business, and can gain far more advantageous terms via these FTA's than they will via a WTO agreement. That's why they currently have 17 of them in progress, and why they, along with the EU, have deliberately sabotaged the last 3 rounds of the WTO Trade meets.
The US is fearful of the influence of China, and these FTA's are one way of ensuring that the US has 'influence' over potential competitors for China's huge import market.
The history of FTA's is that generally the US has not delivered on it's side of the agreement The North American Free Trade Agreement promised Canada access to the US grain and meat markets over 5 years ago - they are still sitting on the 49th parallel....wishing they'd been less naive.
The US always has icluded very long term, vaguely worded terminology to cover agriculture in their FTA's, including such long 'phase-in' periods that most of our generation will be in nursing homes before it's applicable. And it does not affect subsidisation.
Given that they are spending US$19 billion on farm subsidies in the next 3 years, is it any wonder that the US wants us to sign off on an FTA which will have precedence-in-law over any future multi-lateral arrangements? It's not in the interests of US farmers to support the WTO trade talks - they will not lose a thing via a US-OZ FTA.
One of the other concerning aspects of an FTA is that it often gives companies much more power in respect of challenging decisions such as those relating to quarantine, and monopolistic trading. US companies have a nasty habit of litigating at the drop of a hat, and that's what's happened with the NAFTA agreement - 28 court actions were pending as of 15/10/03 - effectively blocking the intent of the FTA.
A strong agricultural sector has a huge multiplyer effect right through the economy. It means more aircraft sales, and more hours flown, whether private, charter, ag, or regional RPT.
Farmers are understandably worried that any FTA will involve a reduction in quarantine standards, the abolition of the single desk wheat marketing arrangements, and a loss of ability to import cheaper generic chemicals, fertilisers and pharmaceuticals due 'dumping' claims of the largely US owned multi-nationals. We are being told that our intent to keep Oz clean & green can't be justified - essentially because other countries have the problems, and greatly envy us our low disease and pest status. It's just plain sabotage for us to relax our barriers to facilitate a FTA. Especially when the US and EU clearly use non-tariff barriers such as bogus quarantine claims to keep our primary produce out.
In the longer term, any FTA will see more pests and diseases entering OZ, over and above the current alarming rate of quarantine incursions. Buy a Thrush or Airtractor now - while the A$ is up!! [just joking, of course]
Yes, there may be some increased opportunities for export to US markets, but we need to remember that the US farmer will be much more able to compete with us for existing markets elsewhere in the world. Our costs are likely to rise if our current ability to import generic chemical and fertiliser is challenged via the anti-dumping rules about to be changed by Customs. We'll be less able to compete with the US in many respects.
I cannot see many benefits for Oz in any FTA, because our federal government is so clearly intent on appeasement of the US. They are lightweights fighting the Mike Tyson of world trade. There will be substantially more benefits from a WTO multilateral agreement, because Oz will be negotiating from a position of strength with the so-called 'Cairns' group of nations.
We need to say NO to big buddy and the FTA.
My interest in this arises from being an agricultural scientist and specialist crop protection consultant for over 40 years.
cheers,