Originally Posted by
Squawk7700
Odds.
Lose and engine over Bass Strait and you’re most likely to die*.
Lose an engine over 90 miles of land around say Southern Victoria and your are highly un-likely to die.
It’s not about the level of risk, but rather the impact should the risk be realised.
* Note we have determined that nobody has ever survived a fixed wing ditching in Bass Straight.
I can't remember the specifics but I recall at least three ditchings where all survived. There was a Partenavia I believe that ditched near Wilsons Promontory and a father and his young son survived OK, I remember a Cherokee doing the same trick, and I know that an ultra light ditched near Clark Island. Off those that did not survive, all the ones I know were multi engined, going right back to the early De Havilland airliners, a twin engined freighter, (Argosy) and also on 17th July 1983 an Aero Commander 685 Whisky Juliet Charlie. I would hazard a guess that the death toll in multi engined aircraft is probably much higher than in singles. Please note, I haven't mentioned Frederick Valentich on 21st October 1978 because 1. It is not known if it was a ditching and 2. it was never proved that he ended up in Bass Strait.