Norwegian have been caught in a perfect storm, some of it of their own making.
The problem with the 787 is well documented and means that between 2-4 airframes are out of service each week due to the ongoing engine issue, the costs for this will likely fall on RR and Norwegian have proactively leased in capacity to avoid expensive cancellations during the summer.
The MAX is also well documented and fortunately it’s this year and not next when the operational impact would have been far higher. There are some upsides however, certain marginal routes such as BGO SWF have chopped and overall aircraft utilisation has increased.
The newly launched Dublin Hamilton route was planned at a daily service, but was cut to alternate days, some rebooking of passengers but the majority accepted a date change and load factor 90% more or less since inception and this being done non stop on ETPOS NG’s
The company is now using LIDO flight planning software which is more accurate than the PPS system ( although PPS always used LIDO data for long haul flights) but is now better optimised for these Atlantic routes.
Winter will be the big challenge, whilst I wouldn’t describe pilot resignations as a mass exodus it is certainly at a far higher level than I have seen over the last two to three years, driven by Norwegian uncertainty and job opportunities elsewhere, I expect this will continue into the summer period. I think it’s likely that further temporary reductions in pilot hours will be required over the winter period and until the re introduction of the MAX timescale is known.
If Norwegian avoids another calamity of its own making or external market conditions then I would expect to see a slow recovery towards profitability going forward, but I think another loss is 2019 is now likely