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Norwegian

Old 23rd Apr 2019, 09:35
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Norwegian

With oil at a 2019 high this morning and the Max grounding how much longer can Norwegian continue?
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Old 23rd Apr 2019, 09:45
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That's not a helpful new thread, is it?
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Old 23rd Apr 2019, 09:57
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That's as maybe, but it is relevant.
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Old 23rd Apr 2019, 15:11
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Norwegian-2

Feels like someone with an agenda.
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Old 23rd Apr 2019, 16:27
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Perversely it may help insofar that they have already booked a loss based on hedge positions that were higher than they year end oil price, I think they are fairly well hedged for at least the first part of this year, but overall it won’t be helpful.

Norwegian have wet leased in capacity to cover some of the shortage of aircraft due to the max grounding, they have also delayed some airframe disposals and changed certain flight frequencies, the announcement of various base closures has already resulted in dozens of pilots leaving with many more working their notice, so the headcount is well down already.

With it looking like mid late summer before the MAX is back it will certainly make next winter a huge challenge, all the more so given the need to crew and train for S20 and just where do they think they’ll get the pilots from?
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Old 24th Apr 2019, 05:48
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Things can't be that bad if they're still expanding:

Norwegian expansion
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Old 24th Apr 2019, 06:16
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Originally Posted by crewmeal View Post
Things can't be that bad if they're still expanding:
There is no short term correlation between growth and success. They are in a bit of a hole with their operation and have yet to deliver anything like a consistent operational profit.

Stock market donít seem to have much confidence that there is any likelihood of improvement in the near future.
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Old 24th Apr 2019, 06:16
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Old 24th Apr 2019, 12:21
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Originally Posted by crewmeal View Post
Things can't be that bad if they're still expanding:
Norwegian expansion
News from February' 2018, well...

Btw., Shouldn't the moderator close one of the threads and/or merge them?
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Old 24th Apr 2019, 12:32
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Things can't be that bad if they're still expanding:
Expansion can lead to more costs, more debts and trouble waiting just around the corner. I have seen quite a few expanding airlines crash spectacularly some months later!
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Old 25th Apr 2019, 06:43
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Expansion can lead to more costs, more debts and trouble waiting just around the corner.
Exactly they've already cut back flights from EDI and now reducing flights from Ireland. I would have thought consolidation should be a priority rather than expansion.
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Old 25th Apr 2019, 09:16
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According to a report in today's Independent the airline lost £16.40 on every passenger it flew in the first three months of 2019. The loss for the three months was £130 million with the chairman blaming the loss on Easter falling in April this year compared to March in 2018 with the outlook 'promising' according to the chairman!
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Old 25th Apr 2019, 11:03
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Every airline in Europe loses money during the first three months of the year
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Old 25th Apr 2019, 13:05
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Originally Posted by speedrestriction View Post
There is no short term correlation between growth and success. They are in a bit of a hole with their operation and have yet to deliver anything like a consistent operational profit.
Stock market donít seem to have much confidence that there is any likelihood of improvement in the near future.
There is little correlation between Stock Market perfromance and Profitability.

How much does Lyft make in profit ? How much is it worth ?
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Old 25th Apr 2019, 15:32
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Stock markets will buy in to the 'we are a growth company' story for a while, provided revenues and customer numbers really are growing fast.

Eventually investors will be more cynical about this story from management
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Old 25th Apr 2019, 15:58
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
There is little correlation between Stock Market perfromance and Profitability.

How much does Lyft make in profit ? How much is it worth ?
While stock market investors are not 100% rational, over a long enough time frame they get it reasonably right. The share price trajectory is totally rational, the absolute value of the shares is still debatable.

What is going to change in Norwegianís short term to allow them to become profitable?

Do they have any specific reasons to expect strong yield growth? (ie failure of competitors or large increase in demand)

If not, is there a reasonable expectation that they are going to dramatically reduce their cost base? Still no?

I am genuinely interested to find out what I am missing here.

The product is very polished and professional, but the inconvenient truth is that it costs the shareholders a stack of money every time one of their aircraft pushes back from the gate.

Last edited by speedrestriction; 25th Apr 2019 at 16:12.
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Old 25th Apr 2019, 16:22
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Just announced that the Max debacle has cost them £45 million.... Never good.
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Old 25th Apr 2019, 17:14
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What you don’t know, is they will be leasing in aircraft again... I hope at RR’s expense.
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Old 25th Apr 2019, 18:58
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The share price rose 5% today.
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Old 25th Apr 2019, 21:23
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Did the CDG Crew go on strike in the end???
(https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-no...-idUKKCN1RW0JL)

If so, yet another kick in the cojones for Norwegian, surely they realise they're doing more harm than good?
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