Your seniority will increase more rapidly on short haul (having said that I’ve been in nearly 3 and a half years now and still haven’t quite cracked the top 50% on the Airbus (LHR) despite the 700+ pilot feast of recruitment behind). Stated before here but 50% is the rough watershed moment on any status list. You may well get the odd weekend below that figure but they’ll be rare. Otherwise if you’re bottom 50% on any list expect to work every weekend. On Long Haul fleets where it’s going to take you at least 10 years to crack the top 50% that means you’ll be working every weekend outside of leave for over ten years. If you have a young family at home that’s going to be a major stressor. IMHO it’s an untenable situation. When one of the former Balpa P&P reps has already conceded privately that seniority is ripe for legal challenge it’s surely only a matter of time?
(BTW I stress I’m not advocating that course of action but it would not surprise me one little bit the way things are going).